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2025-09 | OP Shrouded Lance - 03 | J-2 Report *WIP*

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - OP SHROUDED LANCE 02 - 20/09

Intelligence Collected

ITEM 1 - HUMINT #301625SL6

PRESTIGE Human Intelligence (HUMINT) was secured on OBJECTIVE TORCH, material includes a military document that detailed orders from an unknown officer to staff stationed at Novy Dvur station: orders detail the adjustment of freight convoy movements to be re-routed to a metal refinery within the town of Velke Hydcice to then be further coordinated with secondary (likely motorized) convoys. Additionally, the movements of the convoys added explicit mention that there should be no direct transit of equipment to intended sites.end-destination.

ITEM 2 - SIGINT #301725SL7

Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) intercepted a text message --discussing two contacts identified in the message referred to as "Edvard" and "Charles" respectively. With additional mention of component delivery (likely REL: TRIGGER #301625SL6) to a laboratory. Civilian work staff have been pulled with replacement for in-house personnel, likely NNDF or NOVA.

ITEM 3 - HUMINT #301825SL8

Human Intelligence (HUMINT) was secured on OBJECTIVE SKIN, material includes the dog tags of four Special Operations Forces (SOF) with equipment consistent with the NNDF. One weapons system was recovered for review and was identified as a modified Remington Adaptive Combat Rifle, or ACR, this also includeincludes one person --confirmed to be an uninvolved civilian. 

Intelligence Breakdown

SignalsCombined Intelligence (SIGINT)recovered confirmsfrom the operations undertaken on 20 SEPT 2025 suggest following active offensive actions done by the NATO Task-Force has prompted contingency measures in order to preserve the Novihrastova government's armament initiatives that rebel elements (identified asinclude the active obfuscation of material movements to a mentioned "Agrarianlaboratory". Revolt")Based on acquired intelligence and collected materials continue to suggest the Novihrastova government are in effortsa state of rapid development to establishprocure relationsand withbuild theballistic Task-Force.missile Thissystems effort is being coordinated by "Shepherd" however was hampered by coordinated NNDF raids. 4 Military Intelligence (4MI) has confirmed that elements of the NNDF Special Operations (SSO) are active within the AOR based on information received by contact reports. MAB-11 (DHU) are in efforts alongside 4 Military Intelligence (4MI) to confirm identity of NNDF Special Operations Force.

Rebel elements possess enhanced knowledge of Task-Force presence prior to strike suggesting intelligence capabilities or a failed exercise of Operational Security (OPSEC). Despite the contact "Shepherd" being an asset under Alistair Blackwood it is unknown how the contact came into possession of a high-grade encrypted military radio. Additionally, transmissions via HAM radio confirm that SIGINT relating to a Dashcam Footage in Hungary (REF: TRIGGER #301025SL1) of a NOVA-led ambush on equipment outbound for Ukraine. It is believed the referred intelligence is the confirmation that the offensive element in the ambush was NOVA rather than RUAF Special Operations (SpN).

HUMINT #301225SL2#301625SL6

(3x)"Due HARRISto RF-7800S-TRrecent -developments Underand reviewrecent arrival of incoming important components, Petrovic has demanded all southbound convoys are routed to a metal refinery in "Velke Hydcice" for distribution by MAB-5secondary (CNOEU)convoys infor coordinationfurther withcompartmentalisation.

4

Direct MilitaryShipments Intelligenceto (4MI)the laboratory are strictly prohibited. No exceptions will be authourised under any circumstances. Compliance will be monitored and enforced."

SIGINT #301325SL3#301725SL7

[Comms"Edvard dataand -Charles Sent][Translated]

were

Signalat Reporteachothers #1throats -again. "SIGINTWhy HITdo A"
Bearing:they 248have degrees
Distance:to ~700be m
Frequency:here 457when MHz
Direction:we South West
Signal Type: Intermittent
Action: Deployedtake the smalldelivery of their components? Our team weis havemore onthan hand,capable shouldof be surroundingdropping the buildingsupplies shortlyoff at their lab. I've had to pull all civilian workers off and breachingonly use (REF:our TRIGGERown #301425SL4)

personnel

Signalbecause Reportthey #2argue -and "SIGINTreveal HITtoo B"
Bearing: 097 degrees
Distance: ~2300 m
Frequency: 124 MHz
Direction: East
Signal Type: Intermittent
Action: Recommend deploying other nearby units as we don't have the manpower it Letovy. Will reroute the team from the first site located after their investigation is complete.                                                                                                                                  (REF: TRIGGER #301525SL5)much"

HUMINT #301425SL4#301825SL8

(1x)Dog SpottingTag ScopePID:

-
    Prints
  1. Aleksandr UnderWitkowski
    2. review
  2. Pitor Mazur
  3. Kuba Kava
  4. [Lost in Transit]

Operational Capabilities:
Deployed in groups ranging from 2-8 personnel, their training is varied and is likely aided by 4additional Militaryfurther Intelligence (4MI)                                                                                    (1x) L3-HARRIS AN/PRC-152A - Prints Under reviewadvisory by 4Russian MilitarySSO/SpN. IntelligenceCommonly (4MI)

deployed

Note:alongside 4NOVA Militarypersonnel Intelligenceor (4MI),on MAB-11special (DHU)reconnaissance &and GCHQsabotage are confirming how "Shepherd" came to possess the PRC-152A. Investigation may be seconded to MAB-13 (UKSF-HQ) for localized review of "Agrarian Front" activities & procurement efforts.taskings.

"INNDF sawSSO you arrive, even if you did not see me. This is dangerous land now and you must be more cautious. Alas, the wolves are closing in, so I must once again run for the hills. I will make my way to my flock and we shall meet in due time." ~ShepherdLoadout:

HUMINT #301525SL5

Identified Person(s) Killed suspected to be linked with "Agrarian Front":

    • OtakarOpscore Koudelka
      SF Helmet
    • DaliborNNDF Smetana
      UBACs
    • AdolfKKZ10 Kvapil
      PC
    • AdolfAN/PVS-16 Valenta
      Night Vision System
    • JakubAN/PRC-117F Michal
      (VHF) Radio System
    • OsvaldPNR-1000A UrbanPersonal Handheld Radio

AllWeapon Person(s)Systems were identified to be in possession of varied weapons, however focus includes self-defence/hunting firearms, no body armour or additional PPE observed.Include:

    [Radio

  • Kalashnikov transmissionPK -Machine Sent][Translated]

    Gun

    • It

  • Remington looksACR-E like(w. theM203 britsUGL)
    • got
  • L110 our7.62 intel"Minimi"
    • about
  • M72A7 the"LAW"
    • raid
  • MAAWS inRecoilless Hungary.Rifle
    • We have a rough idea of where the supplies from the ambush ended up. I'm leaving now to link up with you and leaving my team here to hopefully help the brits upon their arrival.

It is J-2's recommendation that caution is to be exercised when operating alongside the rebel elements if peer-to-peer contact is made. Despite friendly intentions, their capabilities may prove to be liable for potential breaches of Operational Security (OPSEC) and Personal Security (PERSEC). Additionally it is advised that personnel investigate the Freight Station of Novy Dvur (GR: 120-107) due to its link to Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) relating to Ballistic Missile Guidance Computers (B.M.G.C) relayed by GCHQ prior to deployment. (REL: TRIGGER: #300825RI2)#300825RI2).

J-2 recommend the usage of strategic sabotage and/or Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) measures to ensure full Task-Force effectiveness for enhanced long-term efforts on this intervention deployment:

J-2 Recommendation: SABOTAGE TASKING(S)
  • SABOTAGE Infrastructure and Capability
      • NNDF Infrastructure
        • Radar Station "Maly Koznik" (GR: 096-064)
          • Considerations: Topography suggest Military Bunker/Sub-Terrain Complex on location
        • Communications Infrastructure "Svatobor" (GR: 002-025)
      • NNDF Air Base "Namest"
        • Priority Targets of Opportunity
          • Rail Connection to Base (GR: 087-031)
          • Radar Infrastructure (GR: 094-029)
          • Main Runway Tarmac (GS: 09-03)
        • Secondary Targets of Opportunity
          • Suspected Munitions Storage (GR: 089-028)
          • Aircraft Hangars "Alpha" (GR: 098-039* Rough Spread)
          • Aircraft Hangars "Bravo" (GR: 093-026* Rough Spread)
          • Aircraft Hangars "Charlie" (GR: 091-024* Rough Spread) - Includes Susp. Munitions Storage
          • Transmitter Tower (GR: 090-027)

Intents on targeting the marked locations is to DISABLE and HINDER NNDF Capabilities to enable the Task-Force in maintaining ground and air superiority. Recommended actions can be achieved by via usage of controlled artillery fires (148 Battery 29Cdo., C/S: Thunder 0).

Due to limited capabilities of the NNDF's AAA Network it is possible to action targets via No. 617 Sqn. RAF as coordinated by 2PARA (Via C/S: Monarch) or UKSF elements at disposal of PJHQ.

StagedIt elementsis ofJ-2's UKCFSTRONG are advisedRECCOMENDATION to maintainexercise ZEROadditional FOOTPRINTconsiderations atwhen currentactioning holdingpersonnel positionon secondary transit location (GR:REL: 106-123)OBJ due to proximity to NNDF positions (REF GR: 094-115).CYCLONE)

J-2 Recommendation: ZEROACTIONS FOOTPRINTON COURSEOBJECTIVE OF ACTIONCYCLONE

CourseConsult ofJ-2 ActionRecommendation Includes:Guidance Link for full details

  • IR Discipline - Prohibit Usage of:
    • IR Strobe (HELSTAR-6)
    • IR Illuminator (LLM Mk3)
    • Attached Vehicle IR Illuminators
  • Drone Usage - Prohibit Usage of:
    • Small Drones (AR-2, Teledyne Black Hornet)
    • ISTAR Platforms (Thales Watchkeeper 450 (C/S: Birdseye))
  • White Lights - Prohibit Usage of:
    • Illuminators (LLM Mk3)
    • Vehicle Lights (539 Raiding Sqn. (C/S: Viking))
    • Flares (Handheld or Launched)
    • "Very-Bright" Chemlights (Advised to keep Colouration to STANDARD RED)
  • Verbal and Audible - Ensure general verbal and audible presence is maintained throughout
  • HQ / Briefing Position - It is advised the briefing of NCOs/HQ element is done away from the staging area (advised GR: 105-124)

Route OUT of holding position should be scouted ahead by ground elements (C/S: Stirling) prior to mission launch in order to ensure position security and overall element safety.

  • Advised Named Areas of Interest (NAI) to be scouted and observed by ground-based reconnaissance effort:
    • NAI Pohodnice (GR: 106-120)
    • NAI Gloriet (GR: 106-125)
    • NAI Chrast (GR: 113-121)
    • ASR Alpha (GR: 101-123 (White Marked Route)
    • MSR Towards Novy Dur
    • MSR Towards Maly Bor (And NNDF Installation (GR: 094-115))

Open Leads

Novihrastova Special Operations Forces, or NSSO, have been successfully identified with activity present within the AOR. With consistent positive effects by the Task-ForceForce, it is expected that the NNDF, NNDF/NOVA and affiliated agencies will prepare contingency measures to protect the mentioned "laboratory" (REF: TRIGGER #301625SL6 / #301725SL7). Actions on secondary transit location "Velke Hydcice" are to be exercised with extreme caution. It is J-2's immediate advice to consult J-2 Recommendation: ACTIONS ON OBJECTIVE CYCLONE for guidance to ensure successful actions on target to further build intelligence picture.

Rebel Group, identified as the "Agrarian Revolt" are still not to be trusted with Operational Security (OPSEC) or Personal Security (PERSEC) material until fully verified, including all personnel involved.

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