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2025-09 | OP Shrouded Lance - 03 | J-2 Report

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - OP SHROUDED LANCE 02 - 20/09

Intelligence Collected

ITEM 1 - HUMINT #301625SL6

PRESTIGE Human Intelligence (HUMINT) was secured on OBJECTIVE TORCH, material includes a military document that detailed orders from an unknown officer to staff stationed at Novy Dvur station: orders detail the adjustment of freight convoy movements to be re-routed to a metal refinery within the town of Velke Hydcice to then be further coordinated with secondary (likely motorized) convoys. Additionally, the movements of the convoys added explicit mention that there should be no direct transit of equipment to intended end-destination.

ITEM 2 - SIGINT #301725SL7

Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) intercepted a text message discussing two contacts identified in the message referred to as "Edvard" and "Charles" respectively. With additional mention of component delivery (likely REL: TRIGGER #301625SL6) to a laboratory. Civilian work staff have been pulled with replacement for in-house personnel, likely NNDF or NOVA.

ITEM 3 - HUMINT #301825SL8

Human Intelligence (HUMINT) was secured on OBJECTIVE SKIN, material includes the dog tags of four Special Operations Forces (SOF) with equipment consistent with the NNDF. One weapons system was recovered for review and was identified as a modified Remington Adaptive Combat Rifle, or ACR, this also includes one person confirmed to be an uninvolved civilian. 

Intelligence Breakdown

Combined Intelligence recovered from the operations undertaken on 20 SEPT 2025 suggest following active offensive actions done by the NATO Task-Force has prompted contingency measures in order to preserve the Novihrastova government's armament initiatives that include the active obfuscation of material movements to a mentioned "laboratory". Based on acquired intelligence and collected materials continue to suggest the Novihrastova government are in a state of rapid development to procure and build ballistic missile systems.

HUMINT #301625SL6

Note: Individual: Petrovic, is yet to be identified. Designated as JPEL-2 target. Under Review by 4 Military Intelligence (4MI) 

"Due to recent developments and recent arrival of incoming important components, Petrovic has demanded all southbound convoys are routed to a metal refinery in "Velke Hydcice" for distribution by secondary convoys for further compartmentalisation.

Direct Shipments to the laboratory are strictly prohibited. No exceptions will be authourised under any circumstances. Compliance will be monitored and enforced."

SIGINT #301725SL7

Note: It has been confirmed the mentioned persons: Edvard and Charles, are the two persons identified in the SIGINT Imagery acquired by GCHQ Agent Alastair Blackwood. 

"Edvard and Charles were at eachothers throats again. Why do they have to be here when we take the delivery of their components? Our team is more than capable of dropping the supplies off at their lab. I've had to pull all civilian workers off and only use our own personnel because they argue and reveal too much"

HUMINT #301825SL8

Dog Tag PID:

  1. Aleksandr Witkowski
  2. Pitor Mazur
  3. Kuba Kava
  4. [Lost in Transit]

Operational Capabilities:
Deployed in groups ranging from 2-8 personnel, their training is varied and is likely aided by additional further advisory by Russian SSO/SpN. Commonly deployed alongside NOVA personnel or on special reconnaissance and sabotage taskings.

NNDF SSO Loadout:

  • Opscore SF Helmet
  • NNDF UBACs
  • KKZ10 PC
  • AN/PVS-16 Night Vision System
  • AN/PRC-117F (VHF) Radio System
  • PNR-1000A Personal Handheld Radio

Weapon Systems Include:

  • Kalashnikov PK Machine Gun
  • Remington ACR-E (w. M203 UGL)
  • L110 7.62 "Minimi"
  • M72A7 "LAW"
  • MAAWS Recoilless Rifle

It is J-2's recommendation that caution is to be maintained when operating alongside the rebel elements if peer-to-peer contact is made. Despite friendly intentions, their capabilities may prove to be liable for potential breaches of Operational Security (OPSEC) and Personal Security (PERSEC).

J-2 recommend the usage of strategic sabotage and/or Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) measures to ensure full Task-Force effectiveness for enhanced long-term efforts on this intervention deployment:

J-2 Recommendation: SABOTAGE TASKING(S)
  • SABOTAGE Infrastructure and Capability
      • NNDF Infrastructure
        • Radar Station "Maly Koznik" (GR: 096-064)
          • Considerations: Topography suggest Military Bunker/Sub-Terrain Complex on location
        • Communications Infrastructure "Svatobor" (GR: 002-025)
      • NNDF Air Base "Namest"
        • Priority Targets of Opportunity
          • Rail Connection to Base (GR: 087-031)
          • Radar Infrastructure (GR: 094-029)
          • Main Runway Tarmac (GS: 09-03)
        • Secondary Targets of Opportunity
          • Suspected Munitions Storage (GR: 089-028)
          • Aircraft Hangars "Alpha" (GR: 098-039* Rough Spread)
          • Aircraft Hangars "Bravo" (GR: 093-026* Rough Spread)
          • Aircraft Hangars "Charlie" (GR: 091-024* Rough Spread) - Includes Susp. Munitions Storage
          • Transmitter Tower (GR: 090-027)

Intents on targeting the marked locations is to DISABLE and HINDER NNDF Capabilities to enable the Task-Force in maintaining ground and air superiority. Recommended actions can be achieved by via usage of controlled artillery fires (148 Battery 29Cdo., C/S: Thunder 0).

Due to limited capabilities of the NNDF's AAA Network it is possible to action targets via No. 617 Sqn. RAF as coordinated by 2PARA (Via C/S: Monarch) or UKSF elements at disposal of PJHQ.

It is J-2's STRONG RECCOMENDATION to exercise additional considerations when actioning personnel on secondary transit location (REL: OBJ CYCLONE) in order to secure PRESTIGE HUMINT material and acquire location to transit information in order to ascertain location of "Laboratory" mentioned in previously secured Intelligence (REL: TRIGGER #301625SL6  #301725SL7).

J-2 Recommendation: ACTIONS ON OBJECTIVE CYCLONE

Update: 25SEP25 - Removed Contents, O-Group have not reviewed action recommendations

Open Leads

Novihrastova Special Operations Forces, or NSSO, have been successfully identified with activity present within the AOR. With consistent positive effects by the Task-Force, it is expected that the NNDF/NOVA and affiliated agencies will prepare contingency measures to protect the mentioned "laboratory" (REL: TRIGGER #301625SL6 / #301725SL7). Actions on secondary transit location "Velke Hydcice" are to be exercised with extreme caution. It is J-2's immediate advice to consult J-2 Recommendation: ACTIONS ON OBJECTIVE CYCLONE for guidance to ensure successful actions on target to further build intelligence picture.

Rebel Group, identified as the "Agrarian Revolt" are still not to be trusted with Operational Security (OPSEC) or Personal Security (PERSEC) material until fully verified, including all personnel involved.

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