Situation Report

Country: Novihrastova

Location:
Borders Slovenia (South and West), Hungary (East) and Austria (North)

History of the region

The Republic of Novihrastova has sat at the crossroads of empires for millenia, the same soil tilled by the modern ethnically diverse farmers was once home to Roman colonies, Slavic settlers and marching armies from a vast number of nations. In modern times the population have endured Nazi occupation, the insurgencies that followed as well following Slovenia as it gained independence from the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991. A failed referendum in 1995, at the height of the Yugoslav Wars and amid local tension between the Serbian and Croatian minorities led to talks around local autonomy. In 2000 the Slovenian government granted conditional autonomy to the Novihrastovan Assembly, a small parliament comprised of elected officials from each town within the territory. This allowed them to create new policies, parties and campaign for further autonomy.

In 2004, the winds of change blew over the region. The Nova Obzorja ("New Horizons") party had won the 2002 election in a sweeping majority, promising to lobby to the Ljubljana Government for increased agricultural subsidies to support the struggling farmers, as well as establishing new export deals for the high quality grains farmed there. After two years of negotiations, the Nova Obzorja delegation in Ljubljana withdrew from the talks, and contacted Moscow and Belgrade independently. The local population learned of the failures of the Ljubljana government to secure new deals and provide for the farmers during a televised speech in which Lavrencij Krečič announced his intentions to start talks around autonomy, not with Ljubljana, but with a trip to Moscow.

The situation became tense with the mobilisation of the Slovenian Armed Forces [SAF], the Slovenian government also appealed to NATO, which it had joined the same year. The Russian Government promised Krečič support in their endeavour, and a standoff at Maribor between seperatist forces and the SAF alerted both NATO and the Russians to the true volatility of the situation. Talks were held in France, with NATO and Russian delegations standing firm while discipline broke down in Maribor. The Russians made clear their intent to support the separatists as a way to offset NATO's drive south further into the Balkans. With talks underway for more former Yugoslav states to join, Russia wanted guarantees. In Maribor, fighting had begun, but remained sporadic and unorganised - witnessing this, NATO called a meeting in which it announced the intention to defuse the situation by allowing for the Novihrastovans to leave Slovenia, in exchange for guarantees of its own. NATO and Russia attended a final summit in Helsinki, where they hashed out specifics. Novihrastova was granted nominal independence as well as recognition in the United Nations, NATO would not create new permanent bases in the Balkans and would allow non-military supplies to flow into Novihrastova through rail connections in Hungary and Slovenia. NATO extracted from Russia guarantees that it would not base troops in Novihrastova, nor would it interfere in the politics or electoral system of the new nation. Separatist forces abandoned Maribor the same day, marching South to join celebrations in the new capital of Novihrastova, Ptuj.

From 2005-2010 the Nova Obzorja Party tended to affairs, working on its promises of increased agricultural support, industrialisation and expanded public transport. As well as securing lucrative deals with the Slovenian government for the free movement of people and goods between the nations. In talks held in Sopron, Hungary, Krečič met with Viktor Orban to discuss upgrading rail infrastructure in vital areas linking the two countries together. The small population was well supported through new mines, subsidies for advanced agricultural implements and a desire to keep the status quo.

The country slowly grew ties with the west after the election of Liberal candidate Alojz Glazar in 2012, making small purchases of western civilian and military equipment, the latter to equip peacekeepers and replace old Serbian military gear provided for the Novihristova National Defence Force (NNDF) established in 2006. Tensions between ethnic groups simmered slowly in the background of this modernisation, Serbs, Croats and Slovenes all bickered in local spats. Nova Obzorja, once the party that secured independence through cunning negotiations, had fallen to second place behind the Liberal Workers Party. Aiming to reclaim their grip over the nation, they encouraged these tensions, focusing on the tensions between the majority Slovene population and the Serbs and Croats who largely tended the southernmost farmland. For 8 more years the LWP would slowly have its integrity chipped away at, their inability to intervene and ease ethnic tensions leading to dissent among the previously loyal voting bloc of the semi-urbanised population.

With a new decade closing in, the Nova Obzorja party finally took victory, in a landslide win and with a mandate based on strength and unity, they began with a bang. Harsh crackdowns on civil unrest, increased sentencing on all crimes and introduction of conscription for 18-35 year old men into the NNDF and National Reserve Corps. Militarised Youth groups were founded in towns and the seizure of farms began. The 'National Imperative Act' of 2021 secured legal victories against protesting groups of Farmers, College Students and Professors. Equipment purchases took a larger part of GDP, the defence budget exploding. The NNDF were ordered to conduct enhanced training in riot control as protests escalated, farmers disappearing into the hills after their land was taken.

Known countries and factions operating

~~<Faction~~Novagorija 1>National Defence Force [NNDF]
- ~~<Description>~~Economic minister Niko Žižek, latest asset procurement and testing (image)

Nova Obzorja (translation: "New Horizons")
- President Lavrencij Krečič and Defence minister Andre Gradišnik celebrating his election win, circa 2002 (image)

Novihrastova Intelligence and Security Agency [NOVA]
- Ukrainian supply convoy travelling from Poland was ambushed in Hungary (image - previously suspect Russian operatives, now verified as members of NOVA)

Current Situation

After the stunning victory over the LWP in 2020, the reforms of Nova Obzorja rapidly changed the landscape of the nation - factories were built from seized farms, urbanisation programs forced recently unemployed farmers into towns and cities, and military police were deployed in vast numbers to meet protesters head on. Foreign media were quickly shuttled out of the country as the government organised itself into a machine of oppression.

Arms sales to Novihrastova continued uninterrupted, the flow of arms and ammunition into the country, as well as licenced tooling to produce local patterns of foreign small arms and accompanying systems assisted in the growth of the NNDF from an all-volunteer force into a conscript army. While western equipment continued to arrive, Russian, Belarussian and Kazakh instructors - funded by Russia - arrived in small numbers to train NNDF special forces and begin familiarisation training with Russian weapons and vehicles. The increasing size of the NNDF has caused alarm among NATO nations in the region, with Slovene and Croatian representatives ~~succesfully~~successfully calling upon nations such as Germany and Czechia to stop arms sales.

The economy of Novihrastova has been in decline since the 2020 elections, with investor confidence falling and small business under record scrutiny from the government. Economic Minister, Niko Žižek, has attempted to keep the economy afloat by liquidating foreign holdings and tempting more illicit business by expanding the black market for the benefit of the government. Sanctions have been levied at Novihrastova and the cabinet itself, slowly choking the nation and forcing Defence Minister, Andre Gradišnik, to begin seeking alternative means of acquiring military equipment.

As 2025 marches on, so does the NNDF and the apparatus they protect. Seizures of farms are at an all-time high, penal labourers build massive factories where verdant fields once dominated the ancient landscape. Lavrencij Krečič, President of Novihrastova and founder of the Nova Obzorja party has ramped up his rhetoric, closing ties with Russia and completing deals with the Russians for enhanced materiel aid. With evidence turning up of Russian equipment being smuggled through Italy, into Slovenia and eventually into Novihrastova, NATO has began considering regional intervention.

While stationed in Poland, GCHQ agent Alastair Blackwood—an expert in Russian and Eastern European communications—intercepted the recovered freight manifest detailing one of the many rebranded Russian shipments from Tembelan Island to Novihrastova. This intelligence aligns with other signal intelligence collected by Blackwood indicating that an engineering team in Novihrastova is preparing to receive ballistic missile guidance computer(s) to enhance and expand their existing systems. Identities of the engineering team are still being confirmed at this time. In addition, the recent ambush of a Ukrainian convoy in Hungary confirmed the theft of multiple crates containing Polish-made "PPZR Piorun" MANPADS, unspecified anti-drone systems, and missile warning systems. Blackwood assesses that these assets could be integrated into, or serve as research material for, Novihrastova’s missile development program.

Image credits:
- E. Krok (twitter)